A fan of all things 'challenge,' fantasy sports and pop culture.

Week One WotW Power Rankings and Odds

Week One WotW Power Rankings and Odds

THIS IS SPOILER FREE.  I don’t know anything about elims, who stays and who goes. This is for fun, and to speculate.  


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A couple weeks back when teams were released, I did my Way Too Early Power Rankings — and while I stand by those based on the knowledge I had then, it’s safe to say things have changed, for some very drastically.

What has stayed true: my top two. Paulie and Ninja appear to be the real deal, and Kam teamed with Ash is the definition of a powerhouse.

Seeing their stock plummet: defending champion Ashley M and Chase, as well as fan-fave Leroy and Shaleen.

Moving up the list, Hunter and Georgia as well as Nany paired with Turbo (but not as much as some might want). I also have my eye on Da’Vonne and Bear as a sleeper team, with Kyle and Mattie extremely interesting as well.

1. Paulie & Ninja

(Last Week: 1; no change)


There is just little doubt in my mind that this is the dream team of S33.  Paulie crushed this weeks comp, as did Ninja., and I completely expect those trends to continue. They are both ridiculously agile, fit and hungry.  Paulie wants nothing more than to prove every person wrong.  


2. Kam & Ash

(Last Week: 2; no change)


Monsters Inc: that’s what I will refer to Kam and Ash from now on.  The banana-eating gorilla and arguably the games strongest, smartest woman have become a team that might just be the class of the house.  Kam has allies and respect, but the whole house knows she can influence an entire vote with manipulation...hope she didn’t play those cards too early.


3. Hunter & Georgia

(Last Week: 7, ⬆️4 spots)


A lot of the movement in my Power Rankings from pre-season to week one involve the ‘Prospects.’   Hunter has consistently been a top three Challenger for me, and nothing has changed coming off his first win.  On the other hand, Georgia showed me a little something episode one —and all it takes is a modest partner to make Hunter a top three threat once again.


4. Wes & Dee

(Last Week: 4, no change) 


I could have argued moving them up, ranked 4 last week and I was impressed with Dee this week. It could go either way with Wes, my gut says other than Bananas, he won’t have enemies day one.  Dee impressed Wes and most viewers week one, putting the returning schemer in great spot.


5. Bananas & Morgan

(Last Week: 5, no change) 


And speaking of returning veteran schemers —it’s not the Challenge without Johnny fucking Bananas. Morgan seems to be a Bananas fan who is also a winner in her own right, taking the Big Brother: Over the Top season. My concern here is that Bananas has a massive target on his back from a few of the most prolific players of the season, and could find himself fighting from behind from day one.


6. Kyle & Mattie

(Last Week: 11, ⬆️5 spots) 


This should be interesting. Kyle and Mattie have a very obvious size advantage over most teams. Despite being loud and brash, Kyle has a lot of friends and may even have a few more thanks to the new batch of Geordie Shore folk.  Mattie also looks like someone you don’t want to mess with, with some saying she is Laurel, but bigger.  Quite the compliment.


7. Da’Vonne & Bear

 (Last Week: 13, ⬆️6 spots)


I’ll admit, at first this team confused me.  I’m not sure that I’m much clearer on them after an episode, but what I do know is we got to see Da’Vonne cut the Jozea cord, and she thrived.  Da pulled in first place in the comp, while Bear was able to show well physically and not just with his mouth.  You might look at them and think, there isn’t enough room for two loud, opinionated people on one team —I would argue that they might do well as a true, two-headed attack. It’s also worth mentioning: Bear has been rumored to receive between $100-200k just to appear on this season...I’ll just leave that for you to think on.


8. Cara Maria & Theo

(Last Week: 8, no change) 


I like this team a little more than I did originally. I thought Theo to be just a lanky runner, but he appears to be physically pretty strong. I will say, you’re still looking at a weaker link in Cara. We saw her completely fall apart during this challenge, finishing last amongst the vets.  I don’t think that’s a total anomaly — things that involve more than running and upper body strength have never been Cara’s strength.  We saw Theo attack Ashley M, and I wonder if that will be his MO moving forward.  I’m skeptical but they are trending slightly up, despite the rough opening.


9. Jenna & Gus

(Last Week: 14, ⬆️5 spots) 


This one’s interesting. Gus has gotten a lot of love, people comparing not only his looks but also his physicality to early-CT. I’m excited to see what he can bring, but I’m not so sold on Jenna. Interesting she was plucked second-to-last in front of Amanda (and therefore nearly the sacrificial lamb of a partner to Josh). Jenna has good numbers if you’re strictly a stat-sheet guy, but dig deeper and you’ll see a couple of her finals rest on being the layup (with Jay in Exes II and cousin Briana during Bloodlines). I think Jenna needs to prove herself this season.


10. CT & Julia

(Last Week: 9, ⬇️1 spot) 


CT gets his own two-part wedding special, and he’s as close to the face of this show behind Johnny and Cara that you’d think his success would be a good thing for MTV.  Apparently production hasn’t received the memo.  CT, sadly, was partnered with a past-her-prime Veronica last season (ending with an early departure) and now finds himself with the Nolan twin that made it through.  There is a big chance that I am underestimating Julia, but after watching her on Big Brother, I just don’t know that we can expect much.


11. Nany & Turbo

(Last Week: 16, ⬆️5 spots) 


I pissed everyone off with my last Power Ranking, as I had this team almost dead last. I’m sure this isn’t going to thrill everyone, but I’ve settled them in a bit under the top half of teams. Let me be clear: put Turbo with anyone else —Amanda, Ashley, Zahida, even Julia —  and he’s well into the top ten.  I simply do not believe in Nany. For all you Nany truthers, I don’t have an agenda.  I’ve never really liked or disliked Nany all that much, I just don’t believe she is a very strong competitor, and we have not seen her in several years at this point. On top of that - someone on a podcast (forget which) said Nany looks strong— I thought she looked extremely thin and frail.  If this were based on individuals, Turbo would be top five in the men, Nany would likely be bottom three for women (with Shaleen and maybe Julia). For me, the liability of Nany keeps this team mid-pack.


12. Zach & Zahida

(Last Week: 6, ⬇️6 spots) 


I was impressed with Zahida. I think she looks strong but I question her hunger. I always rank Zach in my top five men (if not one or two).  So why did I move this team down? I just don’t see Zach working well with any female (and that would include Jenna).  Look, I love the dude when it comes to comps.  I think he was robbed during Vendettas, and can take any single player one on one in any single battle.  Zach needs to figure out how to work as a team with other women, and he could be dominant.  If Zahida doesn’t put him in his place, he may never get it.


13. Natalie & JP

(Last Week: 15⬆️2 spots) 


I am interested in JP. The guy is built, he looks like a competitor. I just can’t get past Natalie. She had the golden partner last season (say what you will, Paulie beasted  and also worked very well with his partner) and struggled to find her rhythm — and I would argue most of their losses were a direct reflection on Natalie.  That said, their big wins late had huge performances by Nat, and I won’t discredit her drive or toughness. I just don’t think she has ‘it.’


14. Ashley & Chase

(Last Week: 3, ⬇️⬇️11 spots) 


Here is the biggest dive from my initial rankings. I can admit when I’m wrong, I think I was wrong. I still believe in Ashley, and I still think she has the strength and savvy to continue to win, and continue to cash checks. However, it’s incredibly apparent that she has a massive, million-dollar target sitting on her back. First, she’s not gracious. If she would have won and just laid low, her target is small. She made it clear she felt no remorse, and continued to rub it in. Hunter has proclaimed his first priority is making sure Ashley never wins another dime. Oh, also, Chase. Whoa guy, whoa. Talk about coming in hot with Nany —as well as showing weak. I heard he was an athlete, but that hasn’t shown yet. I think his attitude will make him an early target, and combined they will be thrown in early and often.


15. Amanda & Josh

(Last Week: unranked) 


COME ON MTV! Give Amanda a chance. The show is better with her and Cara going at it —and Amanda is a better competitor than advertised.  Josh is an absolute mess, and has a zero percent chance of hanging with these guys.  At best, we are looking at layup territory.


16. Leroy & Shaleen

(Last Week: 12, ⬇️4 spots) 


Imagine being ranked at the very bottom. Beneath Josh. Again, this has everything to do with Shaleen and little to do with Leroy. I love Leroy, we all love Leroy. But what is Shaleen doing here?  


Feedback from Paulie

Feedback from Paulie

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